Football season is getting closer and this is usually the point in the calendar where I start shifting from reacting to the market and back into building watchlists.

One thing I’ve learned in cards is that the best opportunities rarely happen when everyone is excited. Most of my better flips came from buying after sentiment cooled off, rather than chasing the player everyone already wanted.

This week, I wanted to focus heavily on quarterbacks because I think the market is quietly setting up some interesting opportunities before training camp starts. Not every player here is a safe play. Some are proven, some are narrative driven, and some are pure speculation, but all three have something I look for: a reason the card could have more eyes on it.

Let’s get into it.

NFL feels like it’s entering the transition phase again.

NBA playoff money is still moving around, MLB is getting attention from hot streaks and prospect chasers, but football slowly starts taking over around this time every year.

What I’m seeing right now is buyers leaning back into rookie quarterbacks, especially players whose markets cooled after hype cycles. I’m also noticing more movement in numbered parallels and lower population cards, compared to heavily printed flagship base inventory.

That does not mean base cards are dead. It just means buyers appear more selective.

For me, that changes how I buy. I would rather own one strong numbered card with scarcity behind it than several random base rookies I hope move later.

MLB has also been interesting because hot streaks are moving prices quickly. However, instead of chasing the players already running, I’m paying more attention to stars that are slightly off peak pricing, players building All Star momentum, and names whose cards are still down over longer time periods.

Caleb is still mostly a projection play, but quarterback markets often move before production ever shows up.

The hobby loves upside and Caleb still has one of the highest ceilings among young quarterbacks from a market perspective. If camp reports are strong, preseason clips start circulating, or optimism builds heading into the season, prices can react quickly.

I am not aggressively buying here yet, but he is absolutely on my watchlist.

The cards I continue watching are Silver Prizm rookies, PSA 10 flagship rookies, and lower numbered parallels because I think those give the cleanest exposure if attention ramps back up.

This is probably my favorite setup right now because it feels more like a sentiment reset than a hype purchase.

Stroud’s rookie season was incredible. He finished with 4,108 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, only 5 interceptions, and a 100.8 passer rating, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and putting together one of the better rookie quarterback seasons we’ve seen recently.

Then the market exploded.

Honestly, maybe a little too much.

In year two, he still put up solid numbers with 3,727 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, but efficiency dipped and hobby sentiment cooled much faster than the actual production.

Last season the numbers came down again as he finished with 3,041 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in 14 games, while dealing with offensive line issues and missed time.

What interests me is that if you combine all three seasons, Stroud already sits at:

10,876 passing yards

62 touchdowns

25 interceptions

through his first three years.

The market feels very different now compared to the rookie run.

The excitement cooled.

Prices cooled.

Expectations cooled.

But the production profile still exists.

That’s why I keep coming back to him.

I’m mainly watching Silver rookies, PSA 10 flagship cards, numbered parallels, and mid tier autos because this feels less like chasing hype and more like buying after a reset.

This is the speculative section of the report and definitely the highest risk name this week.

Shough finished his rookie season with 2,384 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 91.3 passer rating while completing 67.6% of his passes. He also added 186 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.

The production itself is solid, but what interests me more is when it happened.

He only took over during the second half of the season and still managed strong efficiency numbers while putting himself into Rookie of the Year conversations.

This is exactly the type of profile I like watching.

The hobby is not fully committed yet.

Prices remain affordable.

Attention is lower.

That combination creates opportunity.

If I am buying here, I am mostly targeting numbered cards because if the market does move, scarcity tends to react faster than base inventory.

My goal with this section is not finding the biggest player.

It is finding cards where the risk to reward still makes sense.

This is still my favorite buy in the report because you have proven production, cooled sentiment, and multiple possible catalysts including training camp, preseason hype, and early season performance.

This is more narrative driven and less proven, but if excitement returns these are usually the cards collectors look toward first.

I would still stay disciplined on entry prices, but I think it deserves a spot.

This is the swing.

Smaller entry point.

Higher volatility.

Potentially larger percentage upside if attention builds.

This is not the safe play.

This is the bet before the hobby decides.

This week I only have one player in this section and it is Victor Wembanyama, but before anyone thinks I’m saying to sell Wemby completely, that is definitely not my take.

I still think he is one of the best long term holds in the hobby and has the potential to become one of those players collectors keep for years. My concern is not with Wemby himself. It is with the amount of lower end product already sitting at very strong prices.

Wemby finished his rookie season averaging 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game, won Rookie of the Year, and immediately became one of the biggest names in the hobby.

The market responded exactly how you would expect.

Almost everything moved.

Because of that, I would personally consider trimming some of the lower end rookies and higher print cards if I owned them.

Things like base Prizm, flagship base rookies, common inserts, and mass printed rookie cards are where I would look first.

The reason is simple: scarcity still matters.

If I am holding Wemby long term, I would rather move some money from ten base cards into one stronger card. I would much rather own numbered parallels, case hits, short prints, rare inserts, or lower population slabs.

This is less of a sell Wemby idea and more of an upgrade your Wemby position idea.

If I own rare Wembys, I’m probably holding.

If I own stacks of base cards that already appreciated heavily, I think taking profit and moving into stronger pieces makes a lot of sense.

I keep coming back to Stroud because the setup still makes sense to me.

The rookie year hype is gone.

Prices cooled.

Expectations cooled.

But when you zoom out and look at the full picture, the production profile is still there.

In his rookie season he threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions, putting together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons we have seen in recent years.

In year two he followed that up with 3,727 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, and last season he added 3,041 yards with 19 touchdowns while playing only 14 games.

Across all three seasons, Stroud now sits at:

10,876 passing yards

62 passing touchdowns

25 interceptions

46 career games played

That is why I still like the setup.

The market feels very different compared to the rookie run, but the long term numbers are still strong. If camp narratives start building again and people begin looking back at the full body of work instead of only the recent dip, I would not be surprised to see hobby attention return quickly.

My focus remains on Silver rookies, PSA 10 flagship cards, numbered parallels, and mid tier autos.

This is not a buy because he is hot play.

It is a buy because sentiment cooled faster than production play.

That’s it for this week.

The goal isn’t finding the biggest name.

It’s finding the player everyone stopped talking about right before they start talking again.

See you next week.

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• Entry targets
• Exit plans
• Full watchlist
• Confidence ratings
• Cards I’m actively tracking

This newsletter is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research before buying or selling cards.